Muhammad Saufy Robbani Putra Ariva, . (2026) Analisis Pengaruh Jangka Pendek Dan Jangka Panjang Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia: Pendekatan Ardl. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study evaluates the short- and long-run effects of global coffee prices, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), and domestic coffee output on the volume of Indonesia’s coffee exports from 1995 to 2024. Relying on secondary time-series data gathered from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), CEIC Data, and the World Bank Commodity Data, the research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. According to the short-run analysis, global coffee prices exert a significant negative impact on export volumes. Similarly, REER exhibits a significant negative effect following a period of adjustment, whereas domestic production yields no significant influence. In the long run, only global coffee prices remain a significant negative determinant, with both REER and production showing no statistical significance. Ultimately, the findings indicate that global coffee prices act as the most persistent driver of Indonesia's coffee exports. Furthermore, exchange rate fluctuations impact exports with a time lag, and increased domestic production has not effectively translated into higher export volumes.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No. Panggil: 2210115040] [Pembimbing: Khusnul Khatimah] [Penguji 1: Fachru Nofrian] [Penguji 2: Viyolanda Azrimultiya] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Coffee Export Volume, International Coffee Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Coffee Production, ARDL. |
| Subjects: | A General Works > AS Academies and learned societies (General) A General Works > AZ History of Scholarship The Humanities Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > Z719 Libraries (General) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1) |
| Depositing User: | MUHAMMAD SAUFY ROBBANI PUTRA ARIVA |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2026 05:16 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2026 05:16 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/51872 |
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