Aurel Zulvaa Alvira, . (2026) ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, NILAI TUKAR, PRODUKSI, DAN KONSUMSI TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR MINYAK MENTAH INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
Indonesia’s crude oil export volume has shown a significant downward trend over the past few decades. This decline has been influenced by various external and internal factors, such as world oil prices, exchange rates, domestic production, and domestic consumption. This study examines the impact of world oil prices, exchange rates, domestic production, and domestic consumption on Indonesia’s crude oil export volume for the period 1994–2024. The study uses secondary data in the form of annual time series with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method. The results show that global oil prices have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia’s crude oil export volume in both the short and long term due to limited domestic production and increasing domestic energy demand. Exchange rates have a negative and significant effect in the long term but do not have a significant effect in the short term. Domestic production does not have a significant effect in either the short or long term. Meanwhile, domestic consumption does not have a significant effect in either the short or long term. The results also indicate the presence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-term equilibrium when short-term imbalances occur.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No.Panggil: 2210115041] [Pembimbing: Raden Parianom] [Penguji 1: Renea Shinta Aminda] [Penguji 2: Viyolanda Azrimultiya] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Crude Oil Export Volume, World Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Production, Consumption |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1) |
| Depositing User: | AUREL ZULVAA ALVIRA |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Aug 2026 02:57 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Aug 2026 02:57 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/51788 |
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