Fakhrel Raihansyah Hardiono, . (2026) PENGARUH FDI, NILAI TUKAR, DAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DI INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exchange rate, and external debt on Indonesia’s Current Account Balance (CAB) in the short run and long run. This research applies a quantitative approach using annual time-series data for Indonesia from 1993 to 2023. The data were obtained from the World Bank and analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The stationarity test results show that all variables are integrated of order one, or I(1), indicating that the data meet the requirements for ARDL estimation. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the selected model is ARDL(2,0,2,2). The bounds test result indicates the existence of cointegration among CAB, FDI, exchange rate, and external debt as a long-run system. However, the long-run estimation results show that FDI, exchange rate, and external debt do not have statistically significant individual effects on CAB. In the short run, the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on CAB, while external debt has a negative and significant effect on CAB in the current period and one lagged period. The error correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating the presence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium. Overall, the findings suggest that Indonesia’s CAB dynamics are more strongly influenced by short-run changes in exchange rate and external debt than by the individual long-run effects of the explanatory variables.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No.Panggil: 2210115065] [Pembimbing: Viyolanda Azrimultiya] [Penguji 1: Renea Shinta Aminda] [Penguji 2: Sarah Ghania] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Current Account Balance, Foreign Direct Investment, exchange rate, external debt, ARDL. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1) |
| Depositing User: | FAKHREL RAIHANSYAH HARDIONO |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2026 05:47 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2026 05:47 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/51760 |
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