Shandi Rachmat Fathoni, . (2026) OPTIMALISASI PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN BAHAN BAKU KEDELAI PADA INDUSTRI TAHU MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA DAN ARIMAX. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
Competition in the food industry requires companies to have accurate raw material planning to ensure optimal production processes. Tofu Factory X in East Jakarta uses soybeans as its main raw material; however, the determination of order quantities has so far been carried out conventionally without a systematic forecasting method. This condition has the potential to cause mismatches between raw material requirements and availability. This study aims to determine the most accurate forecasting method for estimating soybean requirements as a basis for raw material ordering, using historical data from the June–August 2025 period. The methods applied are ARIMA and ARIMAX, combined with safety stock calculations, while forecasting accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the ARIMA method (1,2,1) produces an estimated soybean requirement of 45,411 kg with a MAPE value of 12.92%, whereas the ARIMAX method (1,2,1) yields an estimate of 44,919.87 kg with a MAPE value of 3.35%. Based on the lower MAPE value, the ARIMAX method is considered more optimal because it not only captures historical patterns but also incorporates causal variables. Further forecasting using the ARIMAX method estimates soybean demand for the subsequent period at 1,423.97 kg, with a safety stock of 1 kg, resulting in a recommended total requirement of approximately 1,425 kg.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | {No Panggil : 2110312075} {Pembimbing : Muhamad As’adi] [Penguji 1 : Siti Rohana Nasution] [Penguji 2 : Donny Montreano] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Forecasting, ARIMA, ARIMAX, Safety Stock, Soybeans, Tofu Industry. |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TS Manufactures |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Teknik Industri (S1) |
| Depositing User: | SHANDI RACHMAT FATHONI |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Jan 2026 03:28 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Jan 2026 03:28 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/41905 |
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