Widya Rinjani, . (2026) PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN MENGGUNAKAN XGBOOST SERTA IMPLEMENTASI PENGENDALIAN SAFETY STOCK DAN REORDER POINT DI PT XYZ. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
Packaging availability is an essential factor in maintaining the continuity of production activities at PT XYZ. Inaccurate demand forecasting may lead to overstock or stockout conditions, resulting in increased inventory costs and production disruptions. This study aims to determine the optimal data splitting scenario, identify the best XGBoost hyperparameter configuration, and implement the forecasting results in safety stock and reorder point calculations. The study used weekly historical demand data for KMK 031 packaging from July 2021 to August 2025, complemented by holiday and promotion variables. The research stages included data preprocessing, feature engineering, data transformation, data splitting using 70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 scenarios, XGBoost model development with default hyperparameters, Grid Search, Random Search, and Bayesian Optimization, followed by evaluation using RMSE, MAPE, SMAPE, and R². The results indicate that the best model was achieved using Random Search with an 80:20 data split, yielding a Test RMSE of 649.7184, Test MAPE of 10.3817%, Test SMAPE of 11.8297%, and Test R² of 0.7733. The forecasting results were subsequently applied to determine safety stock and reorder point values, providing support for inventory control of packaging materials at PT XYZ.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No.Panggil: 2210312062] [Pembimbing: Alina Cynthia Dewi] [Penguji 1: Siti Rohana Nasution] [Penguji 2: Intan Novita Dewi] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | XGBoost, Demand Forecasting, Hyperparameter Tuning, Safety Stock, Reorder Point |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Teknik Industri (S1) |
| Depositing User: | WIDYA RINJANI |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Aug 2026 17:20 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Aug 2026 07:48 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/53755 |
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