Andi Nur'hanifah, . (2026) ANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN UNTUK MENDUKUNG PERSEDIAAN PADA PT XYZ. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze demand forecasting methods to support inventory management of spare parts at PT XYZ, a printing equipment distributor in Indonesia. This descriptive quantitative research applies three time series forecasting methods, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Linear Trend Equation to historical usage data of Spare Part A and Spare Part B from January 2024 to December 2025. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that the Linear Trend Equation method produces the lowest error values for both spare parts: MAD 174.62, MSE 55,427.3, and MAPE 10% for Spare Part A, and MAD 19.82, MSE 584.76, and MAPE 17% for Spare Part B. Based on the best forecasting results, probabilistic inventory control parameters are determined, yielding a safety stock of 1.357 units and a reorder point of 5.201 units for Spare Part A, and a safety stock of 171 units and a reorder point of 431 units for Spare Part B. These parameters are expected to minimize the risk of overstock and stockout conditions at PT XYZ.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No. Panggil: 2210111159] [Pembimbing: Rosali Sembiring] [Penguji 1: Abdul Aji Kresna Tri Anggara] [Ketua Penguji : Heni Nastiti] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Demand Forecasting, Probabilistic Inventory Control, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, And Linear Trend Equation. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Manajemen (S1) |
| Depositing User: | ANDI NUR'HANIFAH |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2026 07:09 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2026 07:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/52185 |
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