Raditya Putra Jaya, . (2026) PENGARUH FAKTOR EKONOMI DAN TEKANAN LINGKUNGAN TERHADAP TRANSISI ENERGI TERBARUKAN DI INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
The transformation towards a green energy mix is a fundamental pillar within the architecture of sustainable development. Nevertheless, the trajectory of energy transition in Indonesia continues to face structural disruptions, ranging from the absolute dominance of fossil fuels and the escalation of carbon pollution to the economy's vulnerability to international energy price shocks. This study is designed to empirically examine the determinants of the energy transition, focusing the analysis on environmental externalities (per capita CO₂ emissions), macroeconomic capacity (per capita GDP), and external volatility (global crude oil prices) affecting the share of renewable energy consumption in Indonesia from 1974 to 2024. Relying on secondary time-series data from global databases (World Bank, Our World in Data, and Macrotrends), econometric estimations were executed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) specification. The selection of this method is based on its robust capability to accommodate cointegration among variables with mixed orders of integration, thereby disentangling short-term transitory shocks from long-run equilibrium. The estimation results reveal an empirical anomaly: neither macroeconomic aggregate capacity (per capita GDP) nor worsening ecological degradation (per capita carbon emissions) has facilitated the acceleration of the energy transition, as both fail to exhibit statistically significant effects across both time horizons. Conversely, external shocks in the form of crude oil price fluctuations actually dictate the direction of the transition by consistently exerting a significant negative effect. These findings assert that market mechanisms and environmental pressures alone are insufficient to catalyze the national energy transformation. In exploring this phenomenon, it is argued that the stagnation of the transition is heavily influenced by the quality of institutions and political governance, which are not yet optimal in formulating and executing energy regulatory instruments. Therefore, policy interventions must transcend mere fiscal incentives; they necessitate comprehensive institutional reforms to ensure green investment certainty, dismantle structural bottlenecks, and progressively curtail reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure to realize a low-emission energy system.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No.Panggil: 2210115074] [Pembimbing: Khusnul Khatimah] [Penguji 1: Renea Shinta Aminda] [Penguji 2: Achmad Nur Hidayat] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARDL, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption, world crude oil prices. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1) |
| Depositing User: | RADITYA PUTRA JAYA |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2026 06:12 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2026 06:12 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/51871 |
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