Analisis Determinan Nilai Ekspor Kakao Indonesia

Alfi Ryantamma Wibowo, . (2026) Analisis Determinan Nilai Ekspor Kakao Indonesia. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.

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Abstract

Cocoa is one of Indonesia's leading plantation commodities that contributes to export earnings and plays an important role in international trade. however, its export value tends to fluctuate due to various domestic and global factors. This study examines the effects of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), inflation, world cocoa prices, and cocoa production on Indonesia's cocoa export value using annual time-series data from 1991 to 2024. Secondary data were obtained from the Center for Agricultural Data and Information Systems of the Ministry of Agriculture, CEIC Data, and the World Bank. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was employed to analyze both the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that REER and inflation do not significantly affect Indonesia's cocoa export value in either the short or long run. In contrast, world cocoa prices and cocoa production have positive and statistically significant effects in both periods. These results indicate that the performance of Indonesia's cocoa exports is primarily driven by commodity-specific factors rather than domestic macroeconomic conditions. Strengthening cocoa productivity, improving product quality, and maintaining competitiveness in the global market are therefore essential to support export growth.

Item Type: Thesis (Skripsi)
Additional Information: [No.Panggil: 2210115100] [Pembimbing: Raden Parianom] [Penguji 1: Indri Arrafi Juliannisa] [Penguji 2: Sugianto]
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cocoa Export Value, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Inflation, World Cocoa Prices, Cocoa Production, Error Correction Model.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1)
Depositing User: ALFI RYANTAMMA WIBOWO
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2026 02:58
Last Modified: 15 Aug 2026 02:58
URI: http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/51864

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