Tanzila Keisha Namira, Tanzila (2026) ANALISIS STAGNASI SEKTOR MANUFAKTUR DAN KETERKAITAN SEKTORAL DALAM CUMULATIVE CAUSATION DI INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study analyzes the stagnation of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector and its intersectoral linkages with the agricultural and service sectors within the framework of Kaldor’s Cumulative Causation over the period 1990–2024. A simultaneous equation model estimated using the Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method is employed to capture reciprocal relationships among sectors and the role of sectoral labor productivity. The results show that manufacturing sector growth and service sector growth have positive and statistically significant effects on Indonesia’s GDP growth, while agricultural sector growth does not have a statistically significant effect on GDP growth. Manufacturing growth is positively and significantly influenced by service sector growth but negatively and significantly affected by agricultural sector growth, indicating the presence of structural substitution between agriculture and manufacturing. Conversely, manufacturing growth exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the growth of both the agricultural and service sectors, suggesting the existence of partial cumulative growth mechanisms. Furthermore, labor productivity growth in the service and agricultural sectors has a positive and statistically significant effect on manufacturing growth, whereas labor productivity growth within the manufacturing sector itself has a positive effect but is only marginally statistically significant. Overall, the findings indicate that Indonesia’s Cumulative Causation process remains asymmetric, with manufacturing continuing to play an important intersectoral role while becoming increasingly dependent on service sector expansion and productivity improvements. Strengthening manufacturing productivity and reinforcing intersectoral linkages are therefore essential to support structural transformation and sustainable economic growth.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | manufacturing, agriculture, services, cumulative causation, economic growth |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1) |
| Depositing User: | TANZILA KEISHA NAMIRA |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Apr 2026 04:38 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Apr 2026 04:38 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/42368 |
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