Sidi Kalika Baio, . (2025) OPTIMALISASI INVENTORY POLICY PRODUK SERAGAM PUTIH POLOS PANJANG PADA UMKM XYZ MENGGUNAKAN PERAMALAN METODE ARIMA DAN SARIMA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.
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Abstract
UMKM XYZ faces challenges in managing the inventory of long plain white uniform products due to significant sales fluctuations, especially seasonal patterns in July. The manual forecasting methods currently used often lead to overstock or stock-out issues, impacting customer satisfaction and operational efficiency. This study aims to predict the sales volume of long plain white uniform products using ARIMA and SARIMA time series methods, evaluate forecasting accuracy, and optimize inventory policy through safety stock and reorder point calculations. Historical sales data from May 2023 to May 2025 were used as the basis for analysis. The results show that the SARIMA (0,1,2) (0,1,0)¹² model for size 13 and (0,1,1) (0,1,0)¹² for other sizes (12, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 20) are the best models with better accuracy compared to initial forecasts. Based on the selected models, safety stock and reorder point calculations were performed for 90% and 95% service levels, providing recommendations for optimal safety stock levels and reorder points. This optimization is expected to help UMKM XYZ manage its inventory more effectively and efficiently.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Skripsi) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | [No.Panggil: 2010312041] [Pembimbing: Yulizar Widiatama] [Penguji 1: Nanang Alamsyah] [Penguji 2: Donny Montreano] |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Forecasting, ARIMA, SARIMA, Safety Stock, Reorder Point |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Teknik Industri (S1) |
| Depositing User: | SIDI KALIKA BAIO |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Sep 2025 07:24 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Sep 2025 07:24 |
| URI: | http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/40061 |
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