PEMILIHAN METODE PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN INTERMITTENT: SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, CROSTON, DAN SYNTETOS-BOYLAN APPROXIMATION UNTUK PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK DAN REORDER POINT DI PT MRT JAKARTA

Adelia Butetta, . (2025) PEMILIHAN METODE PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN INTERMITTENT: SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, CROSTON, DAN SYNTETOS-BOYLAN APPROXIMATION UNTUK PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK DAN REORDER POINT DI PT MRT JAKARTA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.

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Abstract

Optimal spare part availability is crucial for ensuring smooth operations at MRT Jakarta. One of the critical components is the Main Contact Strip (MCS), which exhibits an intermittent demand pattern. An imbalance between inventory and demand can lead to either overstock or stockout, making it necessary to employ an appropriate forecasting method. ADI-CV analysis indicates that spare part demand is intermittent, with an ADI > 1.32 and CV2 ranging from 0.08 to 0.31. This study compares the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Croston, and Syntetos-Boylan Approximation (SBA) methods. The forecasting results show that the SBA method is the most dominant, applied to 14 trainsets (87.5%), while the SES method is used for 2 trainsets (12.5%). The Croston method is not used due to having the highest error rate. Tracking signal evaluation confirms that the chosen forecasting model does not exhibit significant bias. Based on the best method, a safety stock of 177 units and reorder point (ROP) of 745 units are determined. This study provides recommendations for inventory management strategies based on forecasting to optimize inventory management at PT MRT Jakarta.

Item Type: Thesis (Skripsi)
Additional Information: [No.Panggil: 211031209] [Pembimbing: M. As’Adi] [penguji 1: Nanang Alamsyah] [Penguji 2: Yulizar Widyatama]
Uncontrolled Keywords: Main Contact Strip, Intermittent Demand, Inventory Forecasting, Croston, Syntetos-Boylan Approximation, Single Exponential Smoothing, Safety Stock, Reorder Point.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
T Technology > TS Manufactures
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Teknik Industri (S1)
Depositing User: ADELIA BUTETTA
Date Deposited: 06 Aug 2025 09:17
Last Modified: 07 Aug 2025 03:22
URI: http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/39403

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