ANALISIS DETERMINAN NILAI IMPOR BESI DAN BAJA INDONESIA DARI CHINA

Laura Najwa Aulya, Laura (2026) ANALISIS DETERMINAN NILAI IMPOR BESI DAN BAJA INDONESIA DARI CHINA. Skripsi thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta.

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Abstract

This study examines the influence of exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Foreign Direct Investment on Indonesia’s imports of iron and steel from China during 2000–2023. Quarterly time-series data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results indicate that the exchange rate has a positive and significant short-run effect on import values. GDP shows a positive and significant impact in the short run but becomes insignificant in the long run, suggesting that economic expansion stimulates import demand only at the initial stage, while its long-run effect weakens. FDI exerts a significant positive influence in the short run but is insignificant in the long run due to industrial adjustment and the growth of domestic production capacity. These findings highlight that macroeconomic dynamics affect iron and steel import fluctuations primarily in the short run. The study emphasizes the importance of exchange-rate stability, domestic industrial strengthening, and effective management of foreign investment to gradually reduce import dependency.

Item Type: Thesis (Skripsi)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Iron and Steel Imports, Exchange Rate, GDP, FDI, ARDL.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan (S1)
Depositing User: LAURA NAJWA AULYA
Date Deposited: 01 Apr 2026 02:47
Last Modified: 01 Apr 2026 02:47
URI: http://repository.upnvj.ac.id/id/eprint/34181

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